As of 3:23 PM EST on May 11th, bitcoin’s third halving, the once-every-four-year occurrence and most anticipated event was executed successfully at the block height of 630,000. Bitcoin miner now get 6.25 BTC per block rather than the 12.5 BTC they could acquire before the halving.
Investors have been closely watching the reaction of bitcoin and other cryptocurrency price to the halving event. Some believe the event has been mostly priced into markets already, with bitcoin price breaking the $10,000 level several times last week, but there are others who think it could further boost prices.
In the past two halvings, bitcoin climbed 7% one month on from the first halving event occurred in 2012 but slipped 10% a month after the second one in 2016. But the price rose nearly 1000% six months after the 2012 halving and 40% during the same period in 2016.
“Based on the past experience, there would first come bearish movement post halving, maybe a 20% drop one or two weeks after the halving,” Zhao Dong, a well-known Chinese over-the-counter trader and founder of crypto lending and wallet startup RenrenBit, said on Weibo. ”As the halving event itself is a bullish signal and many investors have stocked up some bitcoin ready for the expected rally, but the market usually turns out to go opposite to what most investors wish.”
This is not necessarily the case, however, because history does not simply repeat itself, otherwise the financial markets would be too easy to predict. Zhao said he’s telling investors not to be overly optimistic but always be prepared for risks like the March 12 crash.
Chang Jia, founder of 8btc news and Bytom blockchain, has been addressing the upcoming halving in a number of interviews. The diehard bitcoin believer thinks that “bitcoin is always bullish in the long run and a bull market has little to do with the halving.”
Qtum’s Patrick Dai shares the same bullish view, saying that “halving will play more of a short-term effect. It could help the industry to attract more attention and bring more users in. In the long run, we are all sitting on the big boat of bitcoin, and our goal is farther ahead.”
OKEx CSO Alysa Xu provided an equally bullish prediction, “as the volume of crypto assets is small with high liquidity, and institutions are paying more attention to bitcoin and taking a more positive attitude, crypto assets is worth looking forward to in the second half of the year. I believe bitcoin will reach $20,000 this year.”
While in a veteran investor’s eye, the scenario is somewhat negative. Founder of FBG Capital Vincent Zhou said that the price would keep it there as he saw no growth point.
As early as 2019, it was argued that the 2020 halving would not start a bull market any time soon. Bitcoin mining giant Bitmain’s founder and CEO Jihan Wu, opined that “every bear and bull of bitcoin has been lengthening, and it is possible that the bull market will not come immediately after the halving this time. I am negative about the narrative that halving will lead to a rise in the price of bitcoin, but I am positive about the long-term price trend of bitcoin.”
While after the March 12 crash, Wu turned more positive. “Almost all of the trading platforms saw a new record high in transaction volume in the slump. This was the bottom the market provided and the bottom was very solid for the next bull market. I don’t think there would be a double dip, even if there is one, it will not break the previous lows. The March 12 plunge has fully released the risks, and the leverage level in the market is now relatively low and everyone is cautious. In the future, the market has plenty of room to drive a bull run by the increase of leverage transactions.”
Various predictions have offered a number of possible outcomes, with most holding a bullish view, but where bitcoin will go? It will remain a debatable question and worth to be seen. As of press time, bitcoin is trading at around $8,800, climbing nearly 3% after the halving.